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Try to kill your idea

Why the founders who tested hardest quit more, and earned more · 13 min

Investors told Nick Swinmurn nobody would buy shoes online. So he sold shoes he didn't own. Years later, randomised trials with hundreds of startups found something stranger: founders taught to test their ideas quit more, and earned more. How to find out if your idea is a business before you spend your savings.

Takeaways

  • In randomised trials with 759 early-stage startups in Italy and the UK, founders taught to test their ideas like scientists shut down more ideas, and earlier, and still earned somewhat more revenue on average.
  • Friends saying "I'd buy that" is an opinion; someone paying, pre-ordering or giving up time is evidence.
  • This week: name the one guess your idea can't survive without, and find the cheapest real test of it.

Chapters

  1. Someone else's shoes0:17
  2. The plan that proves nothing2:13
  3. Try to kill it4:02
  4. Two ideas, two tests6:27
  5. Hear it done8:03
  6. Build yours9:29
  7. The answer11:30

References

  1. Camuffo, A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C. — A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making: Evidence from a randomized control trial(2020)
  2. Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Messinese, D., Novelli, E., Paolucci, E., & Spina, C. — A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision-making: Large-scale replication and extension(2024)
  3. Anderson, S. J., Chandy, R., & Zia, B. — Pathways to profits: The impact of marketing vs. finance skills on business performance(2018)
  4. Fitzpatrick, R. — The Mom Test: How to talk to customers and learn if your business is a good idea when everyone is lying to you(2013)
  5. Fortune — Nick Swinmurn: Zappos' silent founder(2012)
  6. Wikipedia — Zappos(2026)